The economic calendar is relatively light this week, but it includes targeted releases on US housing activity, producer price pressures, regional manufacturing sentiment, and the Australian labour market. Central bank speakers from the BoE, ECB, and Fed will add fresh commentary.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to introduce upside risks to energy prices, which could feed into broader inflation outlooks and commodity-linked assets. Markets will focus on the balance between disinflation progress and persistent price pressures, along with signals on monetary policy trajectories.
Here’s what to watch each day (all times in Dubai time, UTC+4):
Monday, 13 April – US Housing Data in Focus
The key release is US Existing Home Sales for March, due at 6:00 PM Dubai time (10:00 AM ET). February’s figure came in at 4.09 million annualized units. Consensus for March generally points to a level around or slightly below this, with markets watching for signs of stabilization.
The US housing sector has shown gradual signs of recovery with rising active listings and improving inventory, though elevated mortgage rates continue to limit transaction volumes. A stronger-than-expected result could boost sentiment in rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and consumer discretionary. A weaker print might reinforce ongoing affordability challenges.
Later in the evening, any comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran could provide further context on the Fed’s outlook.
Overall tone for the day: Moderate impact expected, primarily influencing USD, bonds, and housing-related equities. Trading is likely to stay range-bound without a significant surprise.
Tuesday, 14 April – US Producer Price Data + BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
The main US release is the Producer Price Index (PPI) for March, including the core measure, at 8:30 AM Dubai time (8:30 AM ET). February saw headline PPI rise 3.4% year-over-year, above expectations. Markets will closely examine headline and core MoM/YoY figures for upstream price signals, especially with recent firmness linked to energy and supply factors.
PPI serves as an early indicator for potential consumer price pass-through. With energy risks already contributing to revised 2026 inflation forecasts, hotter-than-expected data could support more hawkish repricing in rates and currency markets.
In the afternoon/evening, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak. His remarks will be analysed for updates on the BoE’s approach to UK growth risks versus inflation persistence. Fresh policy guidance could spark volatility in GBP.
Market implications: Potential movement in USD pairs, bonds, and commodities. Strong PPI might weigh on equities while supporting the dollar; dovish tones from Bailey could pressure sterling.
Wednesday, 15 April – Empire State Manufacturing Index + ECB President Lagarde Speaks
From the US, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for April (typically released early morning Dubai time) will give an early read on New York-area factory activity. The March index fell to -0.2, indicating little change in business conditions. Consensus for April is around 0.5–0.6.
A solid reading would suggest resilient manufacturing momentum, while a sharp decline could heighten growth concerns.
Later, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks. Her comments come as the ECB continues to monitor upside inflation risks—particularly from energy—alongside growth factors. Markets will look for any evolution in tone regarding policy flexibility and the inflation outlook.
Key focus: Eurozone sentiment and EUR crosses. Lagarde’s delivery could shape expectations for the ECB’s near-term path, especially the balance between downside growth risks and persistent price pressures.
Thursday, 16 April – Australian Labour Market Report
Australia releases its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate for March (early morning Dubai time). Recent data showed the unemployment rate at 4.3% in February amid solid employment gains but higher participation. Consensus expects the rate to hover around 4.3%, with focus on whether job additions continue to outpace expectations.
Stronger results could support the AUD and commodity-linked risk assets; softer figures might raise questions about domestic demand.
With no major US data scheduled, attention may shift to follow-through from mid-week central bank speeches and ongoing geopolitical developments.
Overall tone for the day: AUD-sensitive pairs and commodity currencies in focus. Volatility is expected around the release, with possible spillover to broader risk sentiment.
Friday, 17 April – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
The week ends with FOMC member Christopher Waller scheduled to speak. As a Fed Governor, his views often carry weight on the economic outlook, labour market trends, and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.
Traders will listen for any insights into the Fed’s assessment of recent inflation developments, growth signals, and the potential timing for policy adjustments—particularly in light of energy price uncertainties.
With limited other data, Waller’s remarks could act as the final tone-setter heading into the weekend, influencing USD positioning and rate expectations.
Overall tone for the day: Quieter trading volumes likely, though any clear dovish or hawkish lean from Waller could trigger late-week moves in USD, equities, and bonds.
Summary for the week: Volatility may centre on the PPI release and central bank appearances. Key themes include energy-driven inflation risks and how policymakers communicate their data-dependent strategies. Monitor geopolitical headlines closely for potential shifts in risk appetite and commodity prices.
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