The final week of February is set to be an active one for forex traders, with inflation data, central bank speeches, and key economic releases potentially driving volatility across major currency pairs. USD, EUR, and AUD are likely to see heightened activity as markets react to multiple policy updates and inflation readings. Here’s a detailed day-by-day outlook to help traders prepare.
Monday
The week begins with stronger-than-expected New Zealand retail sales, providing early support for the NZD. Bank holidays in Japan and China may reduce liquidity during the Asian session, potentially leading to subdued trading in those markets.
In Europe, Germany releases the IFO Business Climate index, offering insight into business sentiment in the eurozone’s largest economy. Switzerland also reports Producer Price Index (PPI) data, while the United States releases Factory Orders, providing an update on manufacturing demand.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, which could create movement in EUR pairs as traders look for signals on European monetary policy.
Tuesday
China announces its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates, where no change is expected. While the impact may be limited, traders will still monitor any commentary for insights into China’s economic outlook.
Focus then shifts to the United States, with Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Manufacturing Index set for release — both critical indicators of economic momentum. Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Waller, Goolsbee, Bostic, Collins, and Cook, are scheduled to speak. These speeches could increase volatility in USD pairs as markets seek guidance on inflation and interest rate direction.
Wednesday
Wednesday is a significant day for the Australian dollar, with CPI, Trimmed Mean CPI, and Construction Work Done data scheduled for release. Traders will closely watch inflation readings for indications of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
In the US, Crude Oil Inventories are expected, which could impact oil-linked currencies such as CAD. Additional Federal Reserve commentary throughout the day will keep the dollar in focus and may trigger intraday market swings.
Thursday
The spotlight remains on the United States, with the release of Unemployment Claims — a key measure of labor market health. Further commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman, is expected and could influence USD sentiment.
In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks again, while eurozone monetary data such as M3 Money Supply and Private Loans will provide additional insight into economic conditions. Canada releases its Current Account figures, which may sway CAD sentiment depending on the results.
Friday
The week concludes with multiple high-impact releases across major economies. Tokyo Core CPI offers insight into Japan’s inflation trend, while Germany releases CPI data alongside other eurozone inflation indicators.
Canada reports GDP figures, and the United States releases the Producer Price Index (PPI), a forward-looking gauge of inflation that could set the tone for USD movement heading into the next week. Chicago PMI and Construction Spending reports are also scheduled, adding further data for traders to digest.
Conclusion
This week is heavily focused on central bank commentary and inflation data, with the US dollar likely to remain the most sensitive currency. Traders should pay close attention to inflation readings, labor market indicators, and central bank speeches, as these releases could quickly shift market sentiment and create strong intraday volatility.
Proper risk management will be essential around high-impact events such as CPI and PPI releases. Staying informed, planning trades carefully, and monitoring market-moving events will be key to navigating opportunities this week may present.
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